Backup | Uranium

Thus, a uranium backup is not a “buffer stock” for price smoothing alone—it is a for critical infrastructure. 3. Policy and Market Rationales 3.1 Geopolitical Risk Hedging Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered spot uranium prices to rise from ~$30/lb to >$100/lb. Western utilities that had forward-covered supply faced minimal disruption, but others without reserves faced contract renegotiations. A strategic uranium reserve would have dampened the panic.

| Feature | Implication for backup | |--------|------------------------| | High energy density | Storage costs are low (a year’s supply for a 1 GWe reactor fits in a small warehouse). | | Long lead times | Mining to fuel fabrication takes 24–36 months. A sudden disruption cannot be quickly compensated. | | Geographically concentrated enrichment | ~46% of global SWU (Separative Work Units) in Russia; 35% in Europe; 15% in US/China. | | Political sensitivity | Uranium from Kazakhstan (41% of mining) transits Russia. | uranium backup

Abstract: As nuclear power experiences a global resurgence for decarbonization and grid stability, supply chain vulnerabilities in uranium enrichment and fuel fabrication have become critical. This paper defines “Uranium Backup” as the strategic storage of natural uranium, enriched uranium, or fabricated fuel assemblies to hedge against geopolitical disruptions, mining outages, or enrichment bottlenecks. Analyzing cases from the US Strategic Uranium Reserve to Japan’s stockpile policies, we argue that a properly designed uranium backup system functions as a public good—reducing price volatility, ensuring reactor continuity, and deterring energy coercion. 1. Introduction Nuclear power provides ~10% of global electricity and ~25% of low-carbon power. Unlike gas or coal, a nuclear reactor cannot be restarted instantly after a fuel interruption; refueling cycles last 12–24 months, and a single large reactor (1 GWe) requires ~20–25 tonnes of enriched uranium annually. Disruptions to uranium supply—whether from a coup in Niger (7% of global mined uranium), sanctions on Russia (46% of global enrichment capacity), or logistics breakdowns—can force reactors into costly outages. Thus, a uranium backup is not a “buffer